As I suspected at the end of my book, reviews or analysis of penny auction sites could be old news after only a few weeks, and Beezid is a perfect example. A few months ago when I joined Beezid, it was fairly competitive but not full of people willing to bid 2, 3, 4 times worth the cost of the auction. I won a few auctions early, and then when people were busy with shiny objects, I won a nice auction with 2 bids.
This past month every time, no matter what time, I join a modest 25/25 auction ($25 gift card/25 promo bids), which is worth maybe $40 at most (given you only spend .16 a bid average at Beezid), half a dozen power bidders (or irrational bidders) join the fray, bid the price up to $3.50 in a heartbeat (which represents over 50 bids each, already past my limit), and then proceed to bid war each person as though we're in a fight for the death in Thunderdome.
Finally, they let some idiot win after 200, 300, 400 bids, which cost him 2-3 more than the price of the card, plus the final auction price which is, by now, over $6, plus the delivery charge, which is $4.
Insane. This happens every day, all day, with people who would rather win than save money and who are chasing off all the people who just want to get a good deal and adhere to Rule #1: TGIF (To Get It Free!)
This is akin to a bad poker player trying to buy the pot when he has a bad hand. Stupid, irrational, economically a loser, and pointless.
I cancelled my membership at Beezid. It's not worth a single second of my time anymore.
March 27, 2013
March 23, 2013
Happy BidDay Winning Strategy
I've won 6 auctions on Happy BidDay, all for $25 gift cards, which won't make me rich, but did give me a nice ROI. It took a couple hundred wasted bids to figure out the best strategy, but since I only paid .06 for bids, it was a cheap lesson.
Unlike other sites (Beezid, Quibids), you can set more than one auto-bid (BidRunner on HBD) service for an auction. The limit for a capped auction (don't even bother with capped auctions) is two Bidrunners, but every other auction you can set as many as you want, for all intents and purposes.
The Bidrunner has a 25 bid limit, so the way to win an auction is first to wait until the price of the auction goes to at least $3. Count the number of bidders who obviously have Bidrunners going. There are usually 4-5 bidders at the $3 point. Since you know each of your bids counts .01 toward the price, figure you have 20 bids for every dollar added to the final price. With 4-5 other bidders, you are safe setting a Bidrunner for 20 bids for every dollar increment. Set your Bidrunners for 20 bids for every dollar - 20 bids between $3 and $4, 20 bids between $4 and $5, and so on until you reach the price you are willing to pay for the gift card. I'm not willing to pay more than $6 for a $25 gift card because the shipping on HBD is already $4.
Now, you can go watch TV or make dinner and take a peek back into the auction to see if any of the other bidders dropped out. You can always add a new BidRunner for 10-20 bids to make sure yours doesn't run out before the $5 or $6 mark. I have fallen asleep and lost auctions when I didn't keep an eye on my BidRunner.
If you stay awake and feed the BidRunner little bits at a time, you will win.
Unlike other sites (Beezid, Quibids), you can set more than one auto-bid (BidRunner on HBD) service for an auction. The limit for a capped auction (don't even bother with capped auctions) is two Bidrunners, but every other auction you can set as many as you want, for all intents and purposes.
The Bidrunner has a 25 bid limit, so the way to win an auction is first to wait until the price of the auction goes to at least $3. Count the number of bidders who obviously have Bidrunners going. There are usually 4-5 bidders at the $3 point. Since you know each of your bids counts .01 toward the price, figure you have 20 bids for every dollar added to the final price. With 4-5 other bidders, you are safe setting a Bidrunner for 20 bids for every dollar increment. Set your Bidrunners for 20 bids for every dollar - 20 bids between $3 and $4, 20 bids between $4 and $5, and so on until you reach the price you are willing to pay for the gift card. I'm not willing to pay more than $6 for a $25 gift card because the shipping on HBD is already $4.
Now, you can go watch TV or make dinner and take a peek back into the auction to see if any of the other bidders dropped out. You can always add a new BidRunner for 10-20 bids to make sure yours doesn't run out before the $5 or $6 mark. I have fallen asleep and lost auctions when I didn't keep an eye on my BidRunner.
If you stay awake and feed the BidRunner little bits at a time, you will win.
Voucher Bid Vampires - Quibids
Lately, I have changed my strategy of bidding only on items I would already buy or can use as business gifts to accumulating as many bids as cheaply as possible. In my book I mention how to buy up bids on Beezid during low-traffic times when you aren't desperate for bids and can wait for the right price. I've gotten 50 and 150 bid packs on Beezid for as low as .08 a bid when nobody was paying attention.
With Quibids, it's a little different. If it's a slow time, there are far fewer auctions in which to participate, so there is more competition. It's best to wait for a higher activity level when you can bid on Voucher bid auctions while more interesting items are on the board (iPads, TVs, etc.) You should accumulate Voucher bids at first by winning them with paid bids. Then, once you have 25-50 Voucher bids, you should only use those to accumulate more Voucher bids.
Be advised that if you are bidding on a hybrid Voucher bid auction where a Game Play is involved, you are going to compete with a dozen people who are playing with mostly Voucher bids and are willing to blow most of them to win a game play where they can win 30-100 more.
Also, beware of the Voucher bid Vampires! When you are observing a Voucher bid auction, hover your mouse over the bidders as they appear on the bid board. If they have won 25 - 50 Voucher bids in a recent auction, you know they are willing to spend up to half of them (or more, if there's a Game Play involved) to win. You have to decide if you want to go against someone who can spend 15 bids to win 25. Not me. You have to accumulate a lot more Voucher bids to compete against them. Start small with new players or bidders who waste all their bids early. Some bidders don't realize they can't spend more real bids on an auction than the item is worth (unlike in Beezid, where insane people spend 2-3 times the value of the item just to win); so you will wind up having to BIN an auction unless you are using Voucher bids. I would not spend more than 1/3 my Voucher bids winning more Voucher bids, but I am cheap like that.
I watch Voucher bid auctions, wait for the price to go to an average level, bid using Voucher bids as late as possible, and never go up against people with 50 - 100 Voucher bids to spend. Your goal should be to accumulate as many bids as possible during opportune times (Saturday & Sunday afternoons between 2 - 5, weekdays between 2-4 pm EDT, and very late if you're a night owl between 3-5 am EDT).
With Quibids, it's a little different. If it's a slow time, there are far fewer auctions in which to participate, so there is more competition. It's best to wait for a higher activity level when you can bid on Voucher bid auctions while more interesting items are on the board (iPads, TVs, etc.) You should accumulate Voucher bids at first by winning them with paid bids. Then, once you have 25-50 Voucher bids, you should only use those to accumulate more Voucher bids.
Be advised that if you are bidding on a hybrid Voucher bid auction where a Game Play is involved, you are going to compete with a dozen people who are playing with mostly Voucher bids and are willing to blow most of them to win a game play where they can win 30-100 more.
Also, beware of the Voucher bid Vampires! When you are observing a Voucher bid auction, hover your mouse over the bidders as they appear on the bid board. If they have won 25 - 50 Voucher bids in a recent auction, you know they are willing to spend up to half of them (or more, if there's a Game Play involved) to win. You have to decide if you want to go against someone who can spend 15 bids to win 25. Not me. You have to accumulate a lot more Voucher bids to compete against them. Start small with new players or bidders who waste all their bids early. Some bidders don't realize they can't spend more real bids on an auction than the item is worth (unlike in Beezid, where insane people spend 2-3 times the value of the item just to win); so you will wind up having to BIN an auction unless you are using Voucher bids. I would not spend more than 1/3 my Voucher bids winning more Voucher bids, but I am cheap like that.
I watch Voucher bid auctions, wait for the price to go to an average level, bid using Voucher bids as late as possible, and never go up against people with 50 - 100 Voucher bids to spend. Your goal should be to accumulate as many bids as possible during opportune times (Saturday & Sunday afternoons between 2 - 5, weekdays between 2-4 pm EDT, and very late if you're a night owl between 3-5 am EDT).
March 21, 2013
Irrational Bidders Exhibit C: WTF?
Average price: $7.37
|
Current Auction Price in US Dollars
$18.35
3-21-2013
9:26:27 EDT
WINNER:
salem64
| Compare to * |
$85.99
|
| Shipping $ 9.99 Value of Placed Bids ** (759) | $197.34 |
March 17, 2013
DealDash User "Bio" - The New "Baby on Board"?
I don't bid on DealDash anymore because I ran out of Russian novels to read while waiting for my "BidBuddy" (autobid) to post after every 15 second countdown. I do visit from time to time, just to read the mini "bios" that the players post under their bizarre celebrity cartoon (I swear, one of them looks like Greta VanSusteren). Some of these bios remind me of the yellow diamond signs people stuck on the back window of their mini-vans that stated, "Baby on Board!" I always thought those signs were ridiculous. It's not as if I would restrain myself from ramming into you just because you might be carrying a baby passenger. I'm not going to ram you, anyway.
Some of the bios are to garner sympapthy, or to assure other players that they are bidding on items for charity or noble causes. They may be true, they may not. It's the internet! We never know. I can't tell how effective are these ploys, but I'm sure it's a wash between the bidders who are annoyed versus the ones that might give them a pass if possible.
The DealDash community is like the Jerry Springer version of penny auctions. People post complaints, politics, snide remarks, scolds and warnings, knowing when they bid, anyone paying attention can read their latest comment. Someone should put in their bio, "I'm living in a cardboard box, jobless and starving! I'm using the library for my internet! Please let me win an iPad!"
I might let that guy win.
Some of the bios are to garner sympapthy, or to assure other players that they are bidding on items for charity or noble causes. They may be true, they may not. It's the internet! We never know. I can't tell how effective are these ploys, but I'm sure it's a wash between the bidders who are annoyed versus the ones that might give them a pass if possible.
The DealDash community is like the Jerry Springer version of penny auctions. People post complaints, politics, snide remarks, scolds and warnings, knowing when they bid, anyone paying attention can read their latest comment. Someone should put in their bio, "I'm living in a cardboard box, jobless and starving! I'm using the library for my internet! Please let me win an iPad!"
I might let that guy win.
Irrational Biddders Exhibit B: Lunatics
Here is the result of an auction I watched recently on Beezid where the prize was a "50/50" - $50 gift card plus 50 bonus bids. Based on my formula, I wouldn't spend more than $5 final cost and 50 bids on this auction, and I would wait until the $4 or $5 mark before joining. Even though I bowed out after I saw this auction was going beyond rationality, I was still shocked to see the final result:
Final AuctionPrice: $36.92
Winning Bidder: playbaby - this bidder's record on www.allpennyauctions.com shows he/she is either a crazy rich person with too much time on her hands (since she is thousands in the red), or she's a Plant that accidentally wins a few auctions by default. Her bidding is deliberate, irrational and almost always a failure. The only auctions she wins is those she's willing to spend 10 x the amount, which doesn't only violate Rule #1, but is mean spirited toward other bidders.
| Shipping: $4.99 | |
| Placed Bids ** (1509) | $301.80 |
LOSS: over $ 250 |
March 16, 2013
Rule #1: TGIF - Get Your Bids Cheap
In an effort to adhere to Rule #1 of Penny Wise, Penny Foolish, the lower the cost of your bids, the higher profit you make on your winnings.After your first promotional bonus when joining a site, you'll have to buy bid packs at "promo" rates or win them in auctions. The cheapest way to buy bids is to win them, but that requires spending bids to do it. You'll have to use the formula to determine how many bids you can afford to spend to win more bids. (No more than 1/3).
The next cheapest and easier method is to bid on "Free To Bid" auctions on Beezid or HappyBidDay and pay .06 - .16 per bid, at most. On Beezid, there are constant free auctions on packs of bids ranging from 50, 150, 80, 250, etc. The amounts are somewhat random, so you must do the math ahead of time. Make a list of bid quantities offered and determine your absolute maximum price for that pack. For example, a 50-bid pack on Beezid frequently sells for $8.80 to $9, which is about .17 per bid. My goal is to pay less than $8 for that pack, and I won't bid above that. If someone else wants to pay more, let them. You don't get into bid wars over bid packs. I won't pay more than $10 for a 75 pack, and my goal is to always get it cheaper. I don't focus on buying bid packs, but look for deals and stock up if I can snag them cheaply. It's like buying boxes of cereal on sale. You know you'll use it and enjoy not paying $4 a box for it!
Set a max price based on .14/bid or thereabouts for Beezid. No reason to spend more. Don't be in a hurry, just watch for opportunities to snag bids cheaply. Whatever you do, don't buy any of their promotional packs where they offer 300% bids. Remember, promo bids expire after a week, and bonus bids only count 1:5, in other words, they only apply for every 5 real bids you spend. Even factoring in the 1:5 bonus bids into the value, a typical bid package: 100 bids @ $70 plus, 100 promo bids and 100 bonus bids (worth 20 bids). If you use up these bids in a week's time (220 bids), they cost you .31 each. You can buy bids much cheaper either in auctions, by winning free bids in a hybrid auction, or bidding for them at a max price of .14 - .16. There are plenty of opportunities for that.
Don't get sucked into a "promo" deal. It's not a deal.
The next cheapest and easier method is to bid on "Free To Bid" auctions on Beezid or HappyBidDay and pay .06 - .16 per bid, at most. On Beezid, there are constant free auctions on packs of bids ranging from 50, 150, 80, 250, etc. The amounts are somewhat random, so you must do the math ahead of time. Make a list of bid quantities offered and determine your absolute maximum price for that pack. For example, a 50-bid pack on Beezid frequently sells for $8.80 to $9, which is about .17 per bid. My goal is to pay less than $8 for that pack, and I won't bid above that. If someone else wants to pay more, let them. You don't get into bid wars over bid packs. I won't pay more than $10 for a 75 pack, and my goal is to always get it cheaper. I don't focus on buying bid packs, but look for deals and stock up if I can snag them cheaply. It's like buying boxes of cereal on sale. You know you'll use it and enjoy not paying $4 a box for it!
Set a max price based on .14/bid or thereabouts for Beezid. No reason to spend more. Don't be in a hurry, just watch for opportunities to snag bids cheaply. Whatever you do, don't buy any of their promotional packs where they offer 300% bids. Remember, promo bids expire after a week, and bonus bids only count 1:5, in other words, they only apply for every 5 real bids you spend. Even factoring in the 1:5 bonus bids into the value, a typical bid package: 100 bids @ $70 plus, 100 promo bids and 100 bonus bids (worth 20 bids). If you use up these bids in a week's time (220 bids), they cost you .31 each. You can buy bids much cheaper either in auctions, by winning free bids in a hybrid auction, or bidding for them at a max price of .14 - .16. There are plenty of opportunities for that.
Don't get sucked into a "promo" deal. It's not a deal.
Irrational Bidders Exhibit A: Bidding as Video Game
$15 Walmart Gift Card
Applying The Formula: 33 bids used on a $15 gift card using a BOM. 20 real bids cost him $12, 11 voucher bids could have been saved for something else. Shipping on this card is .50, plus the winning price was .83, over a third of which was spent by the winner. This game included a "Game Play" where the winner had the chance to play an easy video game and win more voucher bids. But, based on his bidding style, he needs to separate bidding on auctions from shooting at terrorists.
- FINAL COST: $ 13.33, and a free chance to win 30 - 60 voucher bids. Was it worth it? There are far easier and cheaper ways to win an auction for pennies. Zach forgot Rule #1.
March 15, 2013
Quibids & Beezid Links - Help The Author With Her Project
If you are curious about Quibids or Beezid after reading my book or landed here through an inquiry about popular penny auction sites, please help me with my research by clicking this link:
http://qb.cm/r33985521 - Quibids
Beezid Link:
http://www.beezid.com/?ref=84reuqc08vk&utm_source=bu&utm_medium=RAFsb&utm_campaign=RAF
This will help me get 25 - 100 free bids so I can continue studying various bid strategies and save you time, money and bids.
Thanks!
Pre-Set Autobids to win Small Auctions
While culling through records of winners of lower-cost gift cards on Beezid ($10 - $25) that attract conservative, newbie bidders, I noticed an interesting strategy: the auctions were often won within 20 - 30 bids by a bidder who set a BOM (autobid) from early on in the auction, prior to the last 4 minutes, often well before. It looks like they preset 25 bids (the max) at up to 30 minutes before the auction, walked away and wagered a pittance of bids that newcomers would freak out right away at the autobidding and bow out. Which is exactly what a lot of them did.
To counteract this strategy, you can try one of two things: first, wait for the auction to begin for real (within the last minute), and wait for the autobidding to run up. If the newcomers flee in terror, bid against the autobidder, counting how many he has left. If he's awake and paying attention, you'll know by the 25th bid. If he set it and left, you only have to risk a half dozen bids to find out. If he's there, decide if you want to spend 50 more bids on the item. If he's not there, you may just snag it up by default. Or, you can try this strategy for yourself by setting an autobid for the max bids (25 for small items) on an auction with no other autobidders set, and see if it works for you.
To check for pre-set autobids, click on an auction that is still 15 minutes or longer (in Beezid), and if you see bids already placed on that auction, go inside the auction to see if one of those bidders is set to Autobid. That's an auction to watch.
For more helpful observations of penny auctions, get my book Penny Wise - Penny Foolish.
To counteract this strategy, you can try one of two things: first, wait for the auction to begin for real (within the last minute), and wait for the autobidding to run up. If the newcomers flee in terror, bid against the autobidder, counting how many he has left. If he's awake and paying attention, you'll know by the 25th bid. If he set it and left, you only have to risk a half dozen bids to find out. If he's there, decide if you want to spend 50 more bids on the item. If he's not there, you may just snag it up by default. Or, you can try this strategy for yourself by setting an autobid for the max bids (25 for small items) on an auction with no other autobidders set, and see if it works for you.
To check for pre-set autobids, click on an auction that is still 15 minutes or longer (in Beezid), and if you see bids already placed on that auction, go inside the auction to see if one of those bidders is set to Autobid. That's an auction to watch.
For more helpful observations of penny auctions, get my book Penny Wise - Penny Foolish.
March 14, 2013
Welcome Penny Wizards!
If you found this blog from the information in my book, Penny Wise, Penny Foolish - A Practical Guide to Penny Auctions, welcome! If you found me from other search engine terms, take a look at my book (electronic versions available for any type reader). This blog will continue where the book left off, documenting new discoveries and changes in sites I reviewed, and provide a closer analysis of specific auctions that demonstrate the theories in my book.
Comments are welcome - share your ideas, experiences, suggestions or corrections. I've set up the comment section to be anonymous and not moderated, but be aware I have had blogs for over a decade, so any spam, nonsense or idiots will be deleted!
Stay tuned for the next entry that features a perfect example of an auction on Beezid that shows all three types of bidders: Pros, Plants and Patsies.
Comments are welcome - share your ideas, experiences, suggestions or corrections. I've set up the comment section to be anonymous and not moderated, but be aware I have had blogs for over a decade, so any spam, nonsense or idiots will be deleted!
Stay tuned for the next entry that features a perfect example of an auction on Beezid that shows all three types of bidders: Pros, Plants and Patsies.
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